Pac-12 bowl projections: Washington to Las Vegas, Utah to the Holiday as Oregon approaches the cruelest twist (rooting for the enemy)

The Pac- dissolved months ago but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall the bowl lineup The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse Each week the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all teams Last week s projections can be located here A forgettable weekend turned worse for Oregon as the results rolled in Saturday afternoon then went next-level bad when the Associated Press Top- poll was circulated Sunday morning It wasn t enough that the Ducks were beaten soundly on their home field by Indiana They are now hurtling toward the worst attainable scenario for anyone who bleeds green and yellow Rooting for Washington And USC That blood-curdling future is rooted not in the Big Ten championship race but rather the College Football Playoff selection process Here s why The Ducks - will easily advance to the CFP if they win out But a second regular-season loss would create a curious situation if Oregon finishes in third or fourth place perhaps alone perhaps in a tie and is a candidate for the at-large pool That could be a slightly precarious position if the Ducks have a glaring hole in their resume No wins over teams in the CFP selection committee s final rankings The CFP rankings which begin their weekly rollout in November aren t identical to the AP Top poll but they are typically close enough to offer a reasonable proxy for this discussion As anyone who has followed the selection process over the years knows victories over ranked opponents is an essential metric for the committee None of Oregon s wins to date have come against teams in the present appearing in the AP poll the win at Penn State has lost all value and only one of the six remaining opponents is at present ranked No USC If the Ducks finish - with no wins over ranked opponents there are zero guarantees especially if other teams in the two-loss cluster possess that which Oregon lacks Yes Indiana made the CFP last year without beating a ranked association but the Hoosiers were - not - In fact only two teams finished - did not reach their conference championship and still qualified for the CFP through the at-large field Ohio State and Tennessee The Buckeyes had two wins over ranked teams Penn State and Indiana and the Participants had one Alabama If the Ducks finish - and get boxed out of the Big Ten championship they might need at least one achievement over a ranked opponent to win a resume showdown against a two-loss SEC association Their upcoming schedule features Rutgers - Wisconsin - Iowa - Minnesota - USC - and Washington - Only the Trojans and Huskies have a reasonable path to the selection committee s final Top but they need to keep winning The process of rooting for the enemy begins in earnest this weekend when Washington visits Michigan and USC heads to Notre Dame Repeat after me Duck fans Go Huskies How hard was that To the bowl projections College Football Playoff Unit Oregon Big Ten at-large Comment The sweetest of CFP spots is the second tier the No - seeds which don t have the three-and-a-half week break and host an opening-round contest The worst spot The No - seeds which are on the road in the opening round Alamo Bowl Crew USC Comment We can t discount the possibility however remote that USC - emerges as a playoff contender The Trojans would have to deal with a schedule that includes trips to Notre Dame Nebraska and Oregon with no more than one loss Las Vegas Bowl Club Washington Comment The Hotline has officially set UW s regular-season win total at based on the Huskies current record - and the upcoming schedule Whether they finish - or - should not however have a important impact on their bowl tier Holiday Bowl Gang Utah Comment Quick reminder for the Utes - and every crew listed here Bowl agents will select teams based on overall record not conference record Additionally bowls have the option to use the one-win-down rule in which they can pass over Group X in favor of Group Y if there is no more than a one-game difference in record Sun Bowl Organization Arizona State Comment How teams perform relative to expectations can impact selections because bowls view disappointing seasons as indications that ticket sales and hotel bookings will be light If the Sun Devils - finish with three or four losses they could slide LA Bowl Group Washington State Comment The key competition for the Cougars - isn t this week when they visit Virginia It s next week when they host Toledo Lose to the Rockets and the path to six wins narrows substantially Related Articles Big power rankings BYU Cincinnati and Utah rise as Arizona State slips Big Ten power rankings Ohio State Indiana on top UCLA opens coach hunt Pac- rankings Oregon State fires Trent Bray Boise St Wazzu on top Saturday Night Five Oregon tumbles USC rises UCLA rolls and the Big Ten goes off the rails Mailbag CFB super league fate hinges on Big Ten private capital ESPN bowl Gang Arizona Comment Brent Brennan was spot on about the double-edged nature of the loss to BYU The Wildcats - are good enough to push one of the best teams in the conference to overtime but not good enough to make the handful of plays necessary to beat one of the best ESPN bowl Crew Cal Comment The likely destinations within the ESPN pool of games are the Armed Forces First Responders and Gasparilla Bowls We aren t sure any of those would satisfy Cal s administration which is on-the-record indicating six or seven wins isn t good enough Non-qualifier Group Colorado Comment Despite the domination over Iowa State a modest upset for sure the Buffaloes - have too sparse wins and too a multitude of complex games remaining for the Hotline to declare a bowl bid the the majority likely outcome Non-qualifier Unit Oregon State Comment Don t be surprised if the Beavers - experience a short-term bounce following the dismissal of Trent Bray Too little too late is better than nothing at all Non-qualifier Group Stanford Comment Not on our ACC bingo card for The Cardinal - would have a one-game lead over Florida State in the standings when the Seminoles make their mid-October visit Non-qualifier Association UCLA Comment The Bruins - can beat anyone on their remaining schedule or lose to anyone on their remaining schedule Nothing would surprise us But we won t attempt to predict how the final six weeks will play out Send suggestions comments and tips confidentiality guaranteed to wilnerhotline bayareanewsgroup com or call - - Follow me on the social media platform X WilnerHotline